The internet seems to run on conspiracy theories. There are so many of them around that you probably have a favorite one of your own. Half of Americans believe at least one medical conspiracy theory, like the FDA, is secretly hiding a cure for cancer. Maybe yours is about who shot JFK. Or if the moon landing was faked. Heck, maybe you think the Earth is secretly flat and the governments of the entire planet have been conspiring to dupe us into thinking it’s round for generations for some reason.
Out of context, the term conspiracy theory is often used disparagingly. You think of people who believe in conspiracy theories as on the fringe of society, or somehow paranoid and unstable. But numerous conspiracies appeal to people across the board. They don’t adhere to one political ideology. And the fact that some conspiracies are true, like Iran-Contra, bolsters the belief in all the other conspiracies that have not been proven.
Whatever the case, there’s a conspiracy theory for almost everything you can think of and twice as many for stuff you never thought of. But where do these theories come from and how do they gain popularity? Maybe that’s a conspiracy too. Let’s find out.
How Conspiracy Theories Start
Because so many conspiracy theories take root online these days it offers a unique ability for researchers to discover how these things form and spread. Research has shown that conspiracy theories tend to form very quickly when they’re based around false information, as opposed to genuine conspiracies which take much longer to break down and discover.
While a real conspiracy has many working parts, you can remove any of the elements and the story still makes sense. That’s because it’s a real thing and it really happened. All the ways the conspiracy connects still make sense even if you don’t include this part of that part. However, with a false conspiracy theory, if you remove elements, the entire narrative falls apart because it was never true and doesn’t make sense to begin with.
A good example of how a conspiracy is born is the DMSO conspiracy. This chemical is a waste product of paper production. Manufacturers wondered if it had a purpose and a scientist testing it determined it could be a sort of miracle cure.
The FDA didn’t want to approve it because this was the 1960s and it happened just after the thalidomide crisis. Drug testing was a relatively new idea, and they were not keen to approve a new drug without proof it was safe and effective. So the FDA would not approve DMSO, which had not been thoroughly tested, and in the media, the story was that the government had banned this miracle cure. Thus, a medical conspiracy is born.
Conspiracies tend to take root most easily during times of upheaval, confusion, and unrest. In studying over a century of articles and letters in newspapers, researchers found more conspiratorial language and ideas at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, a time with new technology and new ideas being spread around, and then again as the Cold War took off. In that burst of conspiratorial thinking, people were focused heavily on Communism-related conspiracies.
While it seems like the US is more inclined to conspiracy, that may just be a result of the prevalence of US media and control of social media spaces. Evidence also shows conspiracy theories are widespread in all cultures, making it a solid and reliable aspect of the human experience in general.
Why We Believe Them
One of the largest studies ever on who believes in conspiracy theories came up with three tendencies that most believers have. They perceived threats and danger. They rely on their intuition and also express “odd” beliefs and experiences, and finally, they tend to be antagonistic and feel superior to others. We’ll dive into all of that.
Conspiracy theories often give easy answers to complex questions. Even if the conspiracy is not technically “easy,” it may seem vastly complex. But it can boil down to “the government” or “Big Pharma” or some other nefarious cause behind an issue. That simplicity offers security to many people. They feel better now that they “know” why something happened. It also can offer a sense of belonging because the believer is now a part of this inner circle, the truth holders. That’s a comforting thing.
Tim Wise, a critical race theorist, defined conspiracy theories as being for people who don’t understand how societal systems work. They take an individualist look at society and expect everything to be reduced to good people and bad people and not large, complex systems. It’s easy for these people to reduce a thing to an evildoer instead of historical and complicated traditions and systems that allow for things to happen a certain way.
Wise also argues a conspiracy gives comfort in the face of things over which we have no control. This is backed up by additional research suggesting that belief in a conspiracy affords the believer a sense of control that they now know something valuable and unique.
Research has shown that people who do poorly on critical thinking tests, in particular those related to evaluating arguments, are more likely to believe conspiracy theories. Ironically, when you call a story online out as fake or a conspiracy, that label is actually more likely to get people to read and believe other stories that have not been tagged even if it’s the same false info.
The American Psychological Association identified a number of personality traits and motivators that can make someone more prone to believe. People who believe strongly in their own intuition may be more inclined to be swayed by a conspiracy theory, as are those who feel a strong sense of antagonism or superiority to others.
Conspiracies allow people, who are by no means unintelligent, to make sense of things that don’t make immediate sense. They need to understand in order to feel safe, and a conspiracy theory can offer that because it gives an easier answer than something that may not be easy at all.
While safety is a cushy-feeling motivation, the need to feel superior is also a big factor. People want to feel that they, or the community they identify with, is better. Those who strongly believe are often insecure, paranoid, egocentric, emotionally volatile, and suspicious.
Conspiracy theories start to take hold of people when they’re young. Obviously, older people are just as inclined to spread a conspiracy around, but if you’re wondering when people start believing in conspiracy theories it seems to be around the age of 14. As teens get older their willingness to believe in conspiracies increases with their age. This trend diminishes somewhat into adulthood and reaches a plateau where it no longer increases.
Oldest Conspiracy Theories
The modern world is full of conspiracy theories. There have been conspiracy theories around COVID-19, Donald Trump’s presidency, Jeffrey Epstein, every war that America has been involved in,9/11, and so on.
You could, of course, go back in time and find conspiracies about whether Tupac Shakur is still alive, whether Elvis is still alive, if Hitler’s brain is in a jar, if Walt Disney froze his head, and so much more. But where did it all begin?
If there’s a first conspiracy theory you’re not likely to ever find it. The first instance of that specific term in writing was from a column in the New York Times in 1863 discussing European affairs in the US. Another dates back to 1870 in The Journal of Mental Science. These are not where the idea comes from, of course. These are just the first times anyone labeled anything as such.
In reality, we can find conspiracies that date back to the Medieval period. Anti-Judaism conspiracies from that period said that Jewish people had conspired with the devil to take back the Holy Land. King Phillip of France in 1307 produced a conspiracy theory to banish the Templars by accusing them of Satan worship and sexual deviancy. It worked, too, and he had them all arrested within a night.
In the 1800s, American newspapers were rife with conspiracy theories about politics, religion, and more. The Illuminati, the Europeans, witches, and more were being blamed for all manner of social ills.
In an online world conspiracy theories may seem more prevalent, but they really aren’t as far as anyone can tell. There’s not a lot of research that has been done to try to compare modern conspiracies to ancient ones, but there is enough to suggest that conspiracies have always been a way of life.
The Spread of Conspiracy Theories
There’s more than one reason for someone to spread a conspiracy theory. It’s possible that the person sharing the information genuinely believes what they’re saying. Your uncle Gary may really believe the Earth is flat, and that NASA has been keeping you in the dark. But there’s a second, more nefarious reason as well.
Some conspiracy theories are hatched, and spread, with full knowledge that they are complete lies. The purpose is to sow discord, paranoia, mistrust, and chaos. There are organizations that employ people solely to be trolls on the internet, to share specific hashtags, and stories, and ideas meant to overwhelm and undermine confidence in governments and institutions. They work tirelessly to spread conspiracies, misinformation, and outright lies.
The purpose for spreading these lies is twofold. One, maybe someone truly believes them and has a change of heart. Conspiracy theories do work to bolster people’s opinions even in the face of evidence to the contrary. A 2022 poll found that 29% of Americans believed Joe Biden won the 2020 election due to fraud. That’s a large number that could have a serious impact.
The other reason for the widespread dissemination of conspiracy theories is to overwhelm and undermine. If social media is flooded with conflicting information all the time, the truth will always be watered down.
In one study related to the COVID-19 pandemic and associated conspiracies, the authors noted that people who feel a national narcissism which is defined as feeling one’s ingroup, in this case, their nation, is exceptional compared to all others and deserves special recognition, spread conspiracies more readily.
For a national narcissist, COVID-19 showed the weakness of their nation – and it could be any nation affected by the pandemic. It showed a lack of preparedness and an inability to overcome a challenge. That bred conspiracies blaming other countries, poor government systems, politicians, and healthcare workers. Someone had to be the scapegoat. And these conspiracies spread very fast because it was a time of confusion so everyone, national narcissist or not, wanted an explanation and someone to blame. It allows people to defend their sacred national image, and it’s easy because it supports what they want to believe already, whether it’s true or not.
Online communities allow these theories to breed and spread rapidly and intensely. The information shared reinforces the beliefs of those involved so it’s often never questioned. This is likely something we have all experienced online – you are attracted to online forums and communities that deal with your interests and it’s more enjoyable and affirming to see things shared that support what you already believe and feel to be true.
The theories born on one forum are picked up and shared on another and another as like-minded individuals want to inform those who they share interests with while also challenging those they feel oppose them. They gain legitimacy when high-profile members of the media, online influencers, and even politicians share them.
In the modern world, social media has allowed for unprecedented spread of misinformation and conspiracy. These theories can be weaponized, intentionally or otherwise, to harm people like when an armed man who fell for the Pizzagate conspiracy that said a non-existent basement below a pizza restaurant was a place where politicians were worshiping Satan and sacrificing children opened fire on the restaurant.
There’s also a lot of money to be made in spreading conspiracies. In September 2024 a number of high-profile right-wing YouTubers were found to have been getting paid large sums of money to spread conspiracy theories and misinformation on behalf of Russia. These influences had millions of followers each making the spread of the conspiracies incredibly fast and wide.
Fighting Conspiracy Theories
The consensus seems to be that conspiracy theories are on the rise and are potentially becoming more dangerous. Trying to directly talk someone out of believing a conspiracy theory, even if you have evidence to support your point, rarely works.
There are methods to combat conspiracy theories, but they do take time. One thing is to focus on what people “actually” believe. Conspiracies offer comfort, safety, and explanations for most people. Because a believer likely talks to people and visits forums that bolster these beliefs, they’re inclined to think more people believe the conspiracy than actually do. Learning how few people believe a thing, and how many believe the truth, can help bring people back to reality.
Generally, to get someone away from conspiracy requires receptiveness, patience, and a willingness to not be defensive. That’s why it will probably never work with a stranger on Twitter, but it can be done.