Our history is riddled with tantalizing what‑ifs, and war scenarios are no exception. In this roundup of 10 mind blowing near‑conflicts, we’ll explore how a single decision, a misplaced order, or a diplomatic slip could have sent the world down a dramatically different path. Last time we examined unrealized WWII operations; now we turn to a broader canvas of missed wars that might have reshaped continents.
10 Mind-Blowing What‑Ifs
10 Confederate Team-Up Against The Union
During the American Civil War the Union nearly found itself in a direct clash with Great Britain, all because of one over‑eager Union Navy officer. Captain Charles Wilkes stopped the British merchant vessel Trent and detained two Confederate diplomats who were on their way to London to try to secure a British alliance.
The seizure turned Wilkes into a Union hero, but it also ignited fury across the British Empire. The incident, quickly dubbed the “Trent Affair,” sparked a wave of public calls for war unless the Union apologized. In response, Britain dispatched roughly 8,000 troops to Canada and readied the Royal Navy for a possible showdown.
President Abraham Lincoln, aware that his nation could not afford a two‑front war, quietly launched a behind‑the‑scenes diplomatic offensive. He repudiated Wilkes’ actions, ordered the release of the Confederate envoys, and avoided an official apology. Lincoln’s deft maneuver kept the Union out of a costly war with Britain and dashed the Confederacy’s hopes of a British partnership.
9 The French Wanted Australia
The Japanese were not the only ones eyeing the Australian continent. Over a century before Tokyo’s wartime ambitions, a Napoleonic French expedition already set its sights on the British‑controlled outpost, according to a report uncovered by scholars at the University of Adelaide.
The document stemmed from the 1802 voyage led by the celebrated French explorer Nicholas Baudin. Its chief author, the expedition’s senior scientist François Péron, argued that the fledgling British colony at Port Jackson (modern‑day Sydney) would serve France far better than a penal settlement. He proposed a swift occupation, recommending at least 1,800 French troops, bolstered later by convicts—especially Irish prisoners—to secure the takeover.
The plan never materialised. Historians point to the decisive 1805 Battle of Trafalgar, where the Royal Navy’s crushing defeat of the French fleet crippled Napoleon’s ability to project power across the seas, effectively ending the Australian invasion scheme.
8 Soviet Crisis
During the height of the Cold War’s “Red Scares,” Western observers often imagined a monolithic communist bloc. In reality, the world’s two biggest communist powers—China and the Soviet Union—were on the brink of obliterating each other in the late 1960s.
Beyond the ideological rift that erupted in the 1950s, a series of border disputes kept simmering. Those tensions finally boiled over on March 2, 1969, when armed clashes erupted along their shared frontier and persisted for seven months. Throughout that period, both Beijing and Moscow weighed the prospect of launching nuclear missiles at one another, with the Soviets even consulting the United States about a possible pre‑emptive strike.
Cooler heads eventually prevailed, and diplomatic talks defused the crisis. The fallout proved advantageous for the West, especially the United States, which was then able to pursue a policy of rapprochement with China.
7 The Soviets Almost Invaded Israel (Twice)
Israel’s fortunes could have turned dramatically during the Six‑Day War, when the Soviet Union warned the United States that, should Israel refuse to halt its offensive, Moscow would be forced to intervene militarily in the Middle East—a thinly veiled threat of invasion.
Although many dismissed the warning as bluster, later research revealed that Soviet planners had indeed assembled an invasion force equipped with nuclear‑armed aircraft and warships. Some scholars even argue that the Soviets may have helped spark the Six‑Day War to neutralise Israel’s nascent nuclear programme, a plan that was thwarted by Israel’s rapid victory over its Arab adversaries.
A second, equally ominous episode unfolded during the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Israeli forces were poised to annihilate Egypt’s Third Army and bombard Damascus when a Soviet warning to the United States—promising “unilateral intervention” if the conflict lingered—prompted a sudden cease‑fire.
6 The French And The British Nearly Fought Each Other Before World War I
Imagine a world where Britain and France, instead of becoming steadfast allies, actually went to war just before the Great War erupted. The flashpoint was the Fashoda Incident, a clash of imperial ambitions in Sudan that could have ignited a full‑blown Anglo‑French conflict.
French forces arrived in Fashoda on July 18, 1898, seeking to link their African holdings, only to be met two months later by a British expedition. The ensuing standoff sent shockwaves back to London and Paris, prompting both capitals to mobilise their navies. Yet the French soon recognised that their fleet could not match the Royal Navy’s might.The French Foreign Minister Théophile Delcassé, preferring an alliance to counterbalance Germany, opted for diplomacy. By November, France quietly withdrew from Fashoda, preserving the peace that would later cement the Entente Cordiale and shape WWI alliances.
5 The Russians And The British Almost Fought Too
One of the most absurd diplomatic missteps before the Soviet era occurred during the Russo‑Japanese War. The Russian Baltic Fleet, cruising through the North Sea, mistook a group of British fishing boats for Japanese torpedo boats and opened fire, sinking one vessel and killing two crew members.
The Dogger Bank Incident sparked outrage in Britain, which dispatched a squadron of battleships to shadow the Russian fleet and prepared for war. A swift apology from Tsar Nicholas II, coupled with compensation for the victims, averted a larger conflict—but the Russian fleet’s fortunes were already doomed.
Just months later, the same fleet sailed into the Pacific only to be decimated at the Battle of Tsushima by the Japanese navy, confirming the tragedy of the earlier diplomatic blunder.
4 Berlin Almost Became A Battleground (Again)
After surviving the devastation of World War II, Berlin’s citizens thought they might finally enjoy peace—until the 1948 Berlin Blockade threatened to plunge the city back into conflict. The Soviet Union cut off rail and road access to the Allied sectors, hoping to force the Western powers out of the capital.
For a brief, tense moment, hawks in Washington advocated a military convoy or even a nuclear strike to break the blockade. Fortunately, senior military leaders and President Harry Truman rejected those aggressive plans, opting instead for a massive airlift that delivered food, fuel, and supplies for over a year.
3 Pakistani Standoff
The rivalry between India and Pakistan has produced four conventional wars, but none matched the tension of the 2001‑2002 standoff, which brought the subcontinent perilously close to nuclear exchange.
On October 1, 2001, a terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament shocked the nation, prompting Prime Minister Vajpayee to mobilise nearly a million troops along the border. Pakistan responded in kind, deploying several hundred thousand soldiers. For ten months, both sides hovered at the edge of a nuclear showdown, with Pakistan even hinting at a pre‑emptive nuclear strike against India’s larger forces.
The crisis finally de‑escalated when India voluntarily withdrew its forces on October 16, 2002—a move promptly mirrored by Pakistan. Though the immediate danger passed, the two nations have since endured further confrontations, the 2008 standoff being a notable example.
2 The First And Second Taiwan Strait Crises Could Have Gone Nuclear
Taiwan has long been a flashpoint in US‑China relations. During the First Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1954, communist artillery pounded the Nationalist islands, prompting the United States to mobilise forces and threaten the use of nuclear weapons if the shelling did not cease.
A second crisis unfolded a few years later with a similar pattern: the United States again flexed its nuclear muscles, achieving a de‑facto victory over the communists. The narrow avoidance of nuclear escalation spurred the People’s Republic to accelerate its own nuclear weapons programme.
1 A World War II One Year Earlier
Conventional wisdom marks September 1, 1939, when Nazi Germany invaded Poland, as the official start of World War II. Yet a year earlier, Hitler had drafted “Operation Green” (Fall Grün), a plan to invade Czechoslovakia that could have ignited a global conflict in 1938.
Czechoslovakia was allied with France, Britain, Poland, and the Soviet Union. A German assault would have faced a united front, and senior German officers even plotted to arrest Hitler if the invasion proceeded without allied support. However, Britain and France chose appeasement, allowing Hitler to occupy Czechoslovakia unopposed, paving the way for the broader war that followed.
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